Select a start year and end year from the date slider below to see a chart of annual Mean Sea Level (MSL) for the selected period. If a end year in the future is selected, i.e. beyond which there is available observed data, then a linear (black line) and polynomial (purple line) trendline based on the selected observed data, will each show an estimate of MSL from the year which observed data ends up to the end year selected by the user. All values in the chart are Relative Sea Level (RSL), i.e. are not corrected for Vertical Land Movement (VLM).

The mean annual rate of Relative Sea Level (RSL) change for Tuvalu between and is approximately mm per year with a Standard Error of +/- mm per year.

Corrected for subsidence and Vertical Land Movement (VLM) of +/- mm per year (Site: TUVA, GPS Solution: JPL14), the mean annual rate of Absolute Sea Level (ASL) change for Tuvalu between and is approximately mm per year () with a Standard Error of +/- mm per year.

The mean Relative Sea Level acceleration for Tuvalu between and is approximately mm/year2.

The blue line in the above chart is the annual observed Relative Mean Sea Level (MSL) for the selected period at Tuvalu. This is given as a height above RLR. The intersecting black line is the linear trendline for the selected period. It's gradient is the average annual rate of MSL change who's equation is shown in the legend at the top of the chart. The intersecting purple line is the corresponding quadratic or second degree polynomial trendline for the selected period who's equation is also shown in the legend at the top of the chart. Hover over each trendline's equation to see it's coefficient of determination R2 value in the tooltip

Hover over the blue line to see individual annual MSL values in the tooltip.

Please note that Mean Sea Level predicted from the facility to project the above trendlines into the future are estimates only.

I've created an R Shiny app which fits various degree (1-4) polynomials to the above data and also produces p-Values, R-Squared, F-Statistic and t-statistic error parameters which you can find in the navigation menu at the top of this page.

Station Documentation

Data for 1994 - 2022 retrieved from Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level.